About ChiscoPrediction

🏀⚽ Who I Am

I'm Chisco — I built ChiscoPrediction to solve a problem I kept running into: nobody was publishing basketball picks that actually accounted for Pinnacle sharp-money line movement.

Find me on Telegram: @chiscoprediction

I track live and pre-game Over/Under lines from Pinnacle — the world's sharpest sportsbook — and compare them against popular bookmaker lines to identify where the smart money is pointing. When Pinnacle and the soft books disagree, that disagreement is the signal.

I have since applied the same discipline to football: Over/Under 2.5 goals, both-teams-to-score (GG/NG) and combo picks, built from Pinnacle’s market-implied probabilities, a Dixon-Coles statistical model and a blend of the two.

I am not affiliated with any sportsbook or betting operator. This is pure data analysis and sports intelligence for basketball and football, run by one person.

⚙️ How It Works

1. Line tracking: I monitor Pinnacle line movement live across NBA, WNBA, NBL and EuroLeague games, capturing snapshots throughout the game.
2. Confidence scoring: My model scores each game by confidence, factoring in line direction, movement magnitude, and historical accuracy across hundreds of games.
3. Filtered output: Only high-confidence basketball picks (65%+) appear on the board — lower confidence games are filtered out to protect your bankroll from noise.

Football works differently, on purpose. For each match I publish picks from three sources side by side:

• Pinnacle — the bookmaker’s odds with the margin removed, read as market probabilities.
• Dixon-Coles — a statistical model of team attack and defence that predicts scoreline chances without looking at odds.
• Our Model — a pooled blend of the market and Dixon-Coles.

Each source can pick across three markets — Over/Under 2.5 goals, GG/NG and combos — with a low / medium / high confidence label. Where backtests showed no edge for a source, market and league, I publish no pick rather than a weak one. Football picks are frozen at kick-off, and match times are shown in your own time zone.

📊 Our Track Record — Basketball

ChiscoPrediction has recorded 352 wins with a 75.1% win rate this season across basketball markets — NBA, WNBA, NBL and EuroLeague (469 total picks tracked). Our model is continuously learning — every settled game feeds back into the confidence calibration, improving future predictions over time.

Statistics are updated automatically after every game result. No cherry-picking. No manual curation.

📊 View all 469 settled picks →

⚽ Our Track Record — Football

Football tracking is now live — results will appear here after the first matches finish. A source’s season record is published here once it has at least 30 settled picks, so a handful of early results is never presented as a track record.

📅 Monthly Performance

Last 6 months with recorded results:

✅ How Picks Are Verified

Every prediction is recorded in the database before the game tips off. Once a game goes FINAL, results are auto-settled against the exact pick direction and line — no manual curation, no cherry-picking.

Football: picks are frozen at kick-off and graded on the 90-minute score, so extra time and penalties never change a result. During a live match a pick is marked Won or Lost early only when the outcome can no longer change (for example Over 2.5 the moment the 3rd goal lands).

The win rate shown on this page and the landing page is pulled directly from that database in real time. The record cannot be edited retroactively — every pick and outcome is permanently logged.

⚠️ Responsible Betting

Always bet what you can afford to lose. Our picks are data-driven and backed by sharp-money signals, but no prediction is ever guaranteed. Sports outcomes carry inherent uncertainty — even the best models will have losing runs.

Please gamble responsibly. Set limits, track your bets, and never chase losses. If gambling is becoming a problem, seek help at begambleaware.org.